What happened in New Hampshire?

So, what did happen in New Hampshire?
On Monday night, the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama was preparing for a blowout day as they would defeat Sen. Hillary Clinton, dealing a serious blow to her chances of winning the Democratic presidential nomination.

By Tuesday night, everyone was left stunned as a nine-point lead - one poll had it at 13 - evaporated and it was Clinton giving a victory speech and Obama thanking her on a job well done.

So, was it Clinton's tears causing women to come out and prop her campaign up? Was it an over-confident, some say cocky, Obama campaign getting humbled? Did Bill Clinton pull it out for his wife like he did in 1992 when he came in second here and declared himself the Comeback Kid?

Let's go inside the numbers.

UNDECIDEDS MATTERED

All of the polls had Obama gaining 37% and Clinton winning 30%.

The final results? Obama got 37% and Clinton 39%. What happened? Undecided voters spoke.

Exit polls show that 15% of the voters on Tuesday made up their minds as they headed to the polls that day. And with a record number of voters, nearly 300,000, that means you had 40,000-plus who cast ballots that had not made their feelings known. If you assume Clinton won 60% of those voters, that's about 24,000 to Obama's 16,000. What was her margin of victory? About 8,000.

TEARS FOR FEARS

Clinton was down three points to Obama among women prior to the vote. After the vote, she beat him by 13 points. Many believe her newfound sensitivity, especially with the choking back of tears on Monday, caused women to be more sympathetic to her and vaulted her over the top.

TRADITIONAL VS. NON-TRADITIONAL

Obama took the risky strategy of going after independents, the young vote and Republicans. Clinton? She went after labor, older voters, women and blue collar. The result? She won the key categories, especially single females. She also dusted Obama in the big cities, winning by wide margins.

The Bill Factor

I'm not sold that he pulled it out for her. I think he was used wisely, but it was her overhaul of her message that won the day.

White flight from Obama

There is some speculation that New Hampshire, 97% white, said Obama was the guy, but once they got into the booth, changed their minds. Not sure if that was the case, and it's hard to quantify. Maybe New Hampshire just gave her the close victory.

WHAT'S NEXT

Nevada on Jan. 19, where Obama has picked up two huge union endorsements. Then the battleground of South Carolina, where the Clintons and Obama will duke it out for black votes. The key? BLACK WOMEN. They are 40% undecided. Bill will pour on the charm to get them to back his wife. The Obama campaign should unleash his wife, Michelle, and let the mother of two, professional lawyer from the South Side of Chicago rally sisters to her husband.

Then Tsunami Tuesday, when 23 states go to the polls on Feb. 5. Among them? California, New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Virginia and Arkansas. Who dominates here will likely be the nominee.